Global News Summary: 21 - 27 Feb 2026
This week was dominated by a fresh “cost-of-capital vs AI” tug-of-war: US inflation signals re-heated at the wholesale level, AI leaders were judged more harshly on “what’s next” (not what just happened), and global bond markets stayed sensitive to Japan. In the US, January PPI surprised on the upside (+0.5% m/m, +2.9% y/y; core +0.8% m/m, +3.6% y/y), keeping the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance intact while the 10-year Treasury hovered near ~4.0% into month-end. In Japan, the 10-year JGB yield eased back to around ~2.11% by 27 Feb, but the level still mattered as a global rates transmission channel. In Australia, inflation stayed sticky (CPI +3.8% y/y in January, unchanged), reinforcing a higher-for-longer bias after the early-Feb hike. Singapore printed another low-inflation, pro-growth mix: core CPI 1.0% y/y (headline 1.4%) in January alongside strong trade momentum (January NODX +9.3% y/y) helped by electronics/AI demand. In Switzerland, inflation remained near the floor (~0.1% y/y), keeping the discussion anchored on deflation risk and currency strength.
USA
Inflation
Producer prices (Jan): +0.5% m/m, +2.9% y/y
Core PPI (Jan): +0.8% m/m, +3.6% y/y
This kept the “disinflation is real, but not linear” narrative alive—especially with services and margins still contributing.
Debt securities / policy
Markets focused on whether hotter wholesale inflation feeds through to consumer prices; the 10-year Treasury sat around ~4.0% into month-end, consistent with a cautious policy path rather than rapid easing.
AI
AI equities were more selective: strong results did not guarantee a rally if guidance, concentration risk, or capex intensity worried investors. “Good numbers, higher bar” behaviour became more visible.
Jobs / growth / recession
No single blockbuster growth or jobs print dominated this specific week’s macro tape; the balance of markets suggested slowing-but-still-expanding rather than imminent recession.
UK
Jobs
Latest labour-market dashboard pointed to a cooling tone:
Employment rate: 75.0%
Unemployment rate: 5.2% (Oct–Dec 2025)
Payrolled employees: −121,000 y/y (Dec 2025)
Economic growth (sentiment)
Consumer confidence weakened again, reflecting household caution despite pockets of improving “hard” data earlier in the month.
Debt securities
UK risk assets benefited from global risk appetite, with the FTSE pushing record territory, but domestic rate expectations remained tied to the labour and inflation mix.
EU (Eurozone)
Debt securities / policy
European yields were comparatively steady, with market attention focused on soft-landing signals and limited near-term ECB surprise risk.
Inflation / growth
No single new bloc-wide inflation shock defined the week; the backdrop remained inflation nearer target combined with modest growth, supporting a measured policy stance.
China
Growth / credit / inflation
This week’s global macro tape had few China-specific releases at the headline level. The standing narrative remained uneven demand and targeted policy support, rather than a decisive re-acceleration.
Japan
Debt securities / policy
The global market continued to treat Japan as a key volatility source:
10-year JGB yield: ~2.11% on 27 Feb
This level remains high enough to matter for global duration and FX hedging costs even after easing slightly during the week.
Growth / recession
No major new GDP shock landed this week; attention remained on the interaction between fiscal expectations, interest rates, and currency dynamics.
Australia
Inflation
CPI: +3.8% y/y in January (unchanged from December)
Housing inflation: +6.8% y/y
Housing costs remained a key driver of overall inflation pressure.
Debt securities / policy
Sticky inflation reinforced expectations that the RBA remains vigilant following the early-February rate hike, keeping front-end rate pricing sensitive to each inflation update.
New Zealand
Debt securities / policy
The RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25%, noting CPI at 3.1% (Dec 2025 quarter) but expressing confidence inflation can gradually fall back toward target as excess capacity persists.
Singapore
Inflation
Headline CPI (Jan): 1.4% y/y
Core CPI (Jan): 1.0% y/y
CPI m/m: −0.5%
Inflation remains very contained compared with most developed economies.
Economic growth (trade)
NODX (Jan): +9.3% y/y
The rebound was supported primarily by electronics and AI-related demand, reinforcing Singapore’s role as a barometer for the global technology hardware cycle.
Switzerland
Inflation
Inflation remained extremely low at ~0.1% y/y, keeping the discussion centred on deflationary risk if currency strength persists.
Debt securities / policy
With inflation near zero, Swiss policy optionality remains wide — balancing interest rates against potential FX intervention — while the franc’s safe-haven demand continues to influence financial conditions.