Global News Summary: 14-20 Feb 2026
The week was defined by trade-policy shock and selective macro resilience. In the United States, markets reopened after the Presidents’ Day holiday to a relatively light data calendar, before a major late-week catalyst: the Supreme Court’s 6–3 ruling that broad tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were unconstitutional. Equities rallied (S&P 500 +~0.7%) as legal uncertainty cleared, though markets immediately shifted to questions about replacement trade tools and potential refunds on roughly $200 billion in tariffs collected since 2025. In the UK, a cluster of positive data strengthened the near-term growth narrative: January CPI cooled to 3.0%, retail sales surged 1.8% m/m, and public finances posted a £30.4bn January surplus. In the Eurozone, flash manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, back into expansion territory, supporting the soft-landing view. Japan narrowly avoided recession (Q4 GDP +0.1%), but bond yields stayed elevated above 2.1%, reinforcing Japan’s role as a global duration driver. Singapore’s January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, confirming AI-electronics momentum, while Switzerland’s franc remained firm, sustaining deflationary pressure in an already ultra-low inflation regime.
United States
Trade Policy / Debt Securities
Supreme Court ruling: 6–3 decision striking down broad IEEPA tariffs
Estimated tariffs collected since 2025: ~$200bn
Markets welcomed the legal clarity, but uncertainty persists over alternative trade actions and potential fiscal implications if refunds materialise.
Equities
S&P 500: +~0.7% (Friday)
Risk sentiment improved late-week after the ruling.
Macro Calendar
US markets were closed Monday (Presidents’ Day), contributing to a quieter early week before the policy catalyst.
No major CPI or labour-market release dominated this specific window.
United Kingdom
Inflation
January CPI: 3.0% y/y (down from 3.4%)
Core CPI: 3.1% y/y
Services inflation: 4.4%
Disinflation continues, though services inflation remains elevated, keeping the Bank of England cautious.
Economic Growth
Retail sales (Jan): +1.8% m/m, strongest monthly gain since mid-2024
Flash PMI: strongest private-sector growth in nearly two years
The UK delivered one of the week’s clearest “positive data clusters.”
Public Finances
January budget surplus: £30.4bn
Boosted by record self-assessment tax receipts
Eurozone
Economic Growth
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.8
Back above 50, signalling expansion
First expansion reading in several months
This eased near-term recession fears and supported the “soft landing” narrative.
Policy
No new ECB action this week; the policy stance remains steady amid improving inflation dynamics.
China
Property Sector
2026 primary property sales forecast: −10% to −14%
Oversupply remains the dominant structural drag
The property downturn continues to weigh on domestic confidence and broader growth momentum.
No new CPI/PPI release drove the week.
Japan
Economic Growth
Q4 2025 GDP: +0.1%
Narrowly avoided technical recession
Debt Securities
10-year JGB yield: ~2.1%+
Elevated following the early-February election result
Reflects expectations of increased fiscal expansion
Japan remains a key global duration volatility channel.
Australia
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (Jan): 4.1%
Full-time employment: +50,500
Underemployment: 5.9%
The labour market remains relatively firm, limiting the scope for rapid policy easing.
New Zealand
No major CPI or GDP release during this window. Labour-market conditions remain soft relative to Australia, with elevated underutilisation continuing to frame policy expectations.
Singapore
Trade / Growth
January NODX: +9.3% y/y
Electronics and AI-related exports drove gains
Fiscal Policy
Budget 2026 delivered 12 February
The following week focused on post-budget engagement and policy positioning
Singapore continues to track the global AI/electronics investment cycle closely.
Switzerland
Currency / Inflation
Swiss franc remains near decade highs
Inflation ~0.1% y/y
Currency strength is tightening financial conditions and reinforcing deflationary risk, rather than merely disinflation.
What This Week Meant for Investors
Trade policy has re-entered centre stage.
The UK delivered unexpectedly strong domestic data.
Eurozone manufacturing is stabilising.
Japan’s bond market remains globally relevant.
China’s property drag continues.
Singapore confirms AI-trade momentum.
Switzerland faces rising deflationary pressure.