Global News Summary: 28 Feb to 6 March 2026
This week was defined by a sharper inflation–growth trade-off across global markets, with weak labour signals in the United States, persistent inflation pressure in parts of the Asia-Pacific, and continued fragility in China.
In the United States, the labour market delivered a clear downside surprise as February payrolls fell by 92,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, while energy prices surged with Brent crude moving above $90, complicating the inflation outlook even as growth softened. In the United Kingdom, labour-market cooling and weaker consumer confidence reinforced a fragile household backdrop. The Eurozone continued to show modest improvement in activity indicators, with manufacturing PMI returning to expansion at 50.8 and composite PMI at 51.9, supporting a slow-growth rather than recession narrative.
China remained the clearest weak-demand story, with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0 for February, confirming continued industrial contraction. Japan remained a major transmission channel for global bond markets, with the 10-year JGB yield around 2.17%, still historically elevated for Japan. Australia continued to struggle with sticky inflation at 3.8% y/y, while New Zealand maintained a more accommodative stance with the policy rate at 2.25% as inflation gradually cools.
Singapore maintained one of the most balanced macro profiles globally, combining low inflation (1.4% headline CPI, 1.0% core) with strong trade momentum driven by electronics and AI demand. Meanwhile Switzerland remained at the opposite extreme of the inflation spectrum, with inflation barely above zero, keeping deflation risk and currency strength central to policy discussions.
United States
Jobs / Economic growth
February payrolls: −92,000
January payrolls (revised): +126,000
Unemployment rate: 4.4%
Annual wage growth: 3.8%
The February employment report marked the weakest labour signal in several months. While the data suggest momentum is slowing, they do not yet indicate a clear recessionary shift. Markets interpreted the report as evidence of a cooling labour market rather than an abrupt collapse in economic activity.
Debt securities / policy
Treasury yields initially declined following the weaker labour data but remained sensitive to inflation risks. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance continues to favour patience rather than rapid easing, particularly given the resurgence of energy prices.
Inflation
Energy prices became the dominant inflation risk during the week. Brent crude moved above $90 per barrel, the highest level in nearly two years, raising concern that energy could slow the pace of disinflation.
AI
Technology and AI-related equities continued to show more selective performance. Strong earnings alone were no longer sufficient to sustain rallies; investors increasingly focused on forward guidance, capital-expenditure intensity, and long-term profitability.
United Kingdom
Jobs
Employment rate: 75.0%
Unemployment rate: 5.2%
Payrolled employees: −121,000 year-on-year
The UK labour market continued to soften gradually, with rising unemployment and falling payroll employment pointing to a cooling employment environment.
Economic growth / sentiment
Consumer confidence (GfK): −19 in February, down from −16 in January.
Households remained cautious despite earlier signs of easing inflation. Weak sentiment continues to limit the pace of consumption growth.
Debt securities
UK government bond markets remained sensitive to global interest-rate movements, particularly those driven by US inflation expectations and energy prices.
Eurozone
Economic growth
Manufacturing PMI: 50.8
Composite PMI: 51.9
The euro-area economy showed modest improvement during February, with manufacturing activity returning to expansion territory and services continuing to grow.
Inflation / policy
Inflation remained close to the European Central Bank’s target, allowing policymakers to maintain a steady policy stance. However, the global energy rebound introduced some uncertainty into the near-term inflation outlook.
Debt securities
European bond yields remained relatively stable compared with US markets, though still influenced by global interest-rate trends and developments in Japan.
China
Economic growth
Official manufacturing PMI: 49.0 in February
Previous month: 49.3
China’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction for a second consecutive month, highlighting ongoing weakness in domestic demand and the lingering effects of the property-sector downturn.
Inflation / recession risk
No major new inflation release shifted the broader narrative. The dominant macro theme remained weak internal demand and uneven recovery, with policymakers continuing to rely on targeted support measures.
Japan
Debt securities / policy
10-year Japanese government bond yield: ~2.17%
Japanese bond yields remained historically elevated relative to the country’s long-term norms. Even modest shifts in JGB yields continued to influence global bond markets through currency hedging costs and capital flows.
Economic growth
No major GDP update changed the outlook during the week. Attention remained focused on wage negotiations and fiscal policy expectations following the recent political developments earlier in February.
Australia
Inflation
Consumer price inflation: 3.8% year-on-year
Housing inflation: 6.8% year-on-year
Trimmed-mean inflation: 3.4%
Inflation remained stubbornly elevated, particularly in housing. The persistence of underlying price pressures reinforced the view that Australian monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer.
Debt securities / policy
Markets continued to expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain a vigilant stance following its early-February rate increase.
New Zealand
Debt securities / policy
Official Cash Rate (OCR): 2.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept policy unchanged while signalling that inflation should gradually decline as spare economic capacity increases.
Economic growth / inflation outlook
Inflation remained slightly above target but was expected to fall as domestic demand stays subdued. Compared with Australia, New Zealand’s policy stance appeared more accommodative.
Singapore
Inflation
Headline CPI (January): 1.4% year-on-year
Core CPI (January): 1.0% year-on-year
Monthly CPI change: −0.5%
Singapore continued to record one of the lowest inflation rates among developed economies, reinforcing a stable macro environment.
Economic growth / trade / AI
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX): +9.3% year-on-year
Electronics exports—particularly integrated circuits and other AI-related components—remained a major driver of trade growth. Singapore continued to act as a barometer for the global AI hardware cycle.
Switzerland
Inflation
Inflation remained close to 0%, keeping Switzerland at the extreme low end of the global inflation spectrum.
Debt securities / policy
The Swiss National Bank retained significant policy flexibility due to near-zero inflation. However, continued strength in the Swiss franc raised the risk that excessive currency appreciation could push the economy toward outright deflation.