Global News Summary: 24-28 Nov 2025

Global markets ended a volatile week on firmer ground, with equities rebounding as Federal Reserve officials signaled support for a potential December rate cut, boosting investor sentiment. U.S. stocks rallied sharply on expectations of monetary easing, despite a CME outage disrupting holiday-shortened trading. Meanwhile, global inflation pressures remained mixed: Japan announced a massive ¥21.3 trillion stimulus to combat deflation, while UK tax burdens hit a record 38% of GDP under Reeves’ Budget. Retail sales in the U.S. grew just 0.2% in September while confidence weakened, and the euro area struggled with stagnation, prompting warnings from both the ECB and IMF. AI investment accelerated, with Amazon committing up to $50B and Anthropic launching Claude 4.5, even as central banks warned of stretched tech valuations. Crypto suffered further losses, while gold surged past $4,200 and oil stayed under pressure amid OPEC+ uncertainty. Underneath the rally, volatility, debt fragility, and tech overextension remain structural risks.

United States

   •   Fed signals remained mixed: on 24 Nov, a top Fed official (Williams) backed a 25 bps rate cut “in the near term,” while another (Cook) warned that hedge‑fund “basis trades” in Treasuries could destabilize the $30 trillion bond market.

   •   A Trump–Xi phone call on 25 Nov reinforced the trade‑tariff truce agreed in Korea, easing global trade tensions.

   •   Retail data on 26 Nov showed +0.2% MoM sales in September, but consumer confidence fell to 88.7 in November. Markets interpreted this as soft demand — buttressing rate‑cut expectations.

   •   Equities rebounded on 28 Nov (S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Dow +0.5%) despite thin trading and a major outage at the CME disrupting futures, commodities, and FX markets.

   •   Dollar volatility increased: the USD gauge dipped as rate‑cut odds stayed firm (Kiwi rose, RBNZ cut), but the dollar remained sensitive to macro signals.

United Kingdom

   •   On 27 Nov, the government’s Budget projected taxes rising to 38% of GDP, stretching tax burden on workers, wealth and businesses — drawing criticism for front‑loading spending but backloading revenue gains until 2028–29.

   •   Alongside the tax burden, on 26 Nov the minimum wage was raised by 4.1%, a partial offset to worker income but insufficient to fully counter fiscal pressure.

   •   Rising gilt yields and debt‑management concerns weighed on Sterling‑area sentiment as markets digest the long-term fiscal path.

Eurozone

   •   EU moved to tighten foreign investment rules on 25 Nov, targeting foreign (especially Chinese) firms to ensure local technology sharing and worker benefit.

   •   On 26 Nov, the European Commission flagged rising public deficits across several member states, warning of “sustainability risks” for government debt if structural reforms lag.

   •   Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly dipped in November, reinforcing concerns over persistent economic stagnation despite political efforts at fiscal stimulus.

   •   On 24 Nov and 27 Nov, key ECB and IMF figures cautioned that European monetary policy cannot substitute for structural reforms; fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive growth without deeper change.

Japan

   •   On 24 Nov, Prime Minister Takaichi unveiled a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package, with cash handouts, energy subsidies, and rice coupons — aimed at boosting demand and household relief amid a weak economy.

   •   Despite earlier speculation on a BoJ rate hike, by 27 Nov a dovish board member (Noguchi) signaled a neutral stance, deferring aggressive tightening.

   •   Meanwhile, on 27 Nov the yen was under pressure; but analysts (Morgan Stanley) forecast potential 10% appreciation vs USD if the Fed delivers multiple cuts.

   •   On 26 Nov, Japanese stocks rose on improved sentiment (global rate‑cut hopes + AI‑tech rebound), but structural headwinds remained — including stimulus uncertainty and inflation‑wage mismatches.

Australia & New Zealand

   •   On 24 Nov, NAB economists flagged that if growth and labor tightness persist, the RBA may need to raise rates in H1 2026 — a delicate balancing act given global disinflation pressures.

   •   On 26 Nov, the RBNZ cut rates 25 bps to 2.25%, citing a two‑speed economy: rural areas boosted by commodities, while urban centers lag. This split outlook underpins NZD softening after the cut.

Economic Growth, Jobs & Inflation Signals

US Retail +0.2% (Sep); Consumer confidence 88.7 (Nov) — suggests rising demand stress.

UK Minimum wage +4.1% — modest boost, but offset by heavy tax/ borrowing plans.

Germany/EU Business confidence dipped — signals continued stagnation despite fiscal efforts.

Japan Stimulus ¥21.3T aims to revive demand; but BoJ hesitation and yen weakness could limit impact.

NZ RBNZ cut — suggests weak domestic demand outside commodities.

Australia Labor‑market tightness; potential for future rate hikes if wage & price pressures persist.

Inflation & Cost Pressures

   •   Globally, inflation remains sticky in services and energy — ECB, IMF, and national forecasters warn continued risk.

   •   In the UK, tax increases raise longer-term inflationary risk; Australia and New Zealand battle labor/wage-driven inflation.

   •   In Japan, stimulus may boost demand — but real wages remain under stress given yen volatility and global price rises.

Debt Securities & Yields / Risk Markets

   •   U.S. Treasuries — volatility flagged by Fed (basis‑trade risk).

   •   UK sovereign debt — yields under pressure following tax‑heavy Budget and long-term borrowing plans.

   •   Euro‑area sovereigns — rising deficits spark sustainability warnings; German bonds especially watched.

   •   Japan — fiscal stimulus + weak yen create pressure on JGB yields even as BoJ remains cautious.

   •   NZ sovereigns — falling interest rates reflect weak domestic demand outside commodity export areas.

These diverging debt narratives highlight rising geopolitical & fiscal risk premia, especially in UK, Japan, and parts of Europe.

AI / Tech & Infrastructure

   •   Amazon plans to invest up to $50 billion in AI and high‑performance computing infrastructure for U.S. government contracts — signalling deepening public‑sector AI reliance.

   •   Anthropic released its new model Claude 4.5 (25 Nov), targeting enterprise automation of coding and office tasks — intensifying competition with OpenAI and Google.

   •   AI hardware demand is stressing global supply chains: on 27 Nov, chip‑makers including Dell and HP warned of looming memory‑chip shortages as AI infrastructure build‑out strains capacity.

   •   Chinese firms and open‑source communities registered growing influence — MIT & Hugging Face noted China overtook the U.S. in open‑AI model development, while Alibaba’s cloud business reported +34% revenue growth YoY on 26 Nov.

   •   At the same time, central banks and IMF officials cautioned that valuations of US tech giants (Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet) have become “stretched,” warning of bubble dynamics and “FOMO”-driven investment distortions.

Implication: This bifurcates the tech/equity market — strong structural investment in AI infrastructure on one side, but mounting valuation‑ and liquidity‑risk on the other.

ESG & Governance Signals

   •   EU foreign‑investment rules tighten to prevent Chinese tech firms from gaining unfair advantage without committing to local employment and tech transfer.

   •   Public‑sector and pension‑fund institutional investors (e.g., Norway’s wealth fund) warn that rapid AI deployment could worsen global inequality and governance risk, especially in emerging markets.

   •   In Europe, officials caution that monetary policy alone cannot solve deep structural and debt problems — emphasizing sustainable fiscal governance over short-term stimulus.

Recession Risk & Forward Vulnerabilities

Key Risk Drivers:

   •   US demand softness (retail, confidence) combined with heavy consumer debt and political uncertainty.

   •   Global debt overhang: UK’s high‑tax/growth plan, European deficits, Japanese fiscal expansion under a weak yen.

   •   Valuation stress in tech & AI, exacerbated by potential supply-chain disruptions and rising interest‑rate uncertainty.

   •   Fragmented recovery in commodity-linked economies (NZ, parts of Australia), leaving many households exposed to cost shocks.

Regions at highest near-term risk:

   •   Japan — weak growth, stimulus uncertainty, currency risk.

   •   UK / Europe periphery — heavy fiscal burdens, inflation, and debt stress.

   •   US — consumer strain, uncertainty ahead of December Fed decision, structural demand softness.