Global News Summary: 1-5 Dec 2025

The global economy diverged sharply as North America saw mixed labor data, China enacted aggressive stimulus via a 0.5% RRR cut, and the Eurozone upgraded its Q3 GDP. The US faced a data vacuum due to a delayed payroll report, but private hiring data showed contraction, prompting stronger bets on a December Fed cut. Meanwhile, Canada's job surprise and Singapore’s electronics boom lifted optimism. Japan announced a ¥21.3tn stimulus alongside targeted AI incentives, while crypto and bond markets showed stress. Globally, AI investment and policy developments—especially in China and the US—dominated headlines, confirming a structural shift toward tech-driven growth amid policy recalibration and persistent inflation.

United States

Jobs & Growth: The official BLS Nonfarm Payrolls report was delayed to Dec 16, creating a data vacuum. However, the ADP private report (Dec 3) revealed a surprising 32,000 job contraction, raising concerns over labor market softness.

Economic Outlook: Despite weak hiring, Goldman Sachs forecast 2.5% GDP growth in 2026, beating the 1.9% consensus, citing robust consumer activity and AI-driven capex compounding.

Inflation: The Core PCE (Fed’s preferred gauge) held at +0.2% MoM, with YoY near 3%, supporting a 25bps cut, though not urgently.

Bonds: Treasuries had their worst week since June. The 10-year yield rose 4 bps to 4.14% as markets recalibrated expectations on easing pace.

Equities: The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%) hovered near all-time highs. Tech stocks, especially AI-related names, sustained gains.

Crypto: Bitcoin fell 3% to $89,405, dragged by sentiment and outflows from BlackRock's IBIT fund ($2.7B over 5 weeks, $113M on Dec 5 alone).

Key Corporate News:

SpaceX planning an internal sale valuing it over $500B, surpassing OpenAI.

Netflix announced a merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.

US Congress introduced bipartisan legislation to codify Nvidia chip export restrictions to China.

China

Monetary Policy: The PBOC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5% on Dec 2, adding liquidity in response to deflation and weak manufacturing.

Growth Data: Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, signaling contraction. IMF cut 2025 growth forecast to 4.5% from 4.8%.

AI & Regulation: Introduced AI Ethics Regulations (Dec 4) while committing $50B in domestic AI chip investment for 2025.

Inflation: November CPI came in weak at 0.5%, justifying stimulus.

Eurozone

Growth: Q3 GDP was revised up to +0.3% QoQ. Performance is uneven: Spain (+0.6%) and France drive growth, while Germany lags.

Inflation: Flash CPI edged up to 2.1% in November. ECB is in a tricky spot—less easing room than Switzerland, and pressure remains from sticky service prices.

ESG/Policy: ECB President Lagarde rejected calls to use monetary tools for debt relief, pushing back against French far-right suggestions.

United Kingdom

Jobs & Wages: Chancellor Reeves raised the minimum wage by 4.1% on Nov 26.

Inflation: Still elevated at 3.6% (Oct). Stagflation risks persist.

Growth: Services PMI cooled to 51.3. OECD projects 2026 GDP growth at 1.0%, due to fiscal drag.

Tax Policy: Reeves’ Budget (Nov 27) pushes taxes to 38% of GDP, the highest in UK history, but with deferred implementation (revenue from 2028–29).

Canada

Jobs: Surprise beat: unemployment dropped to 6.5%, with 54,000 jobs added.

Outlook: S&P Global sees 1.4% growth in 2026, helped by labor resilience and potential rate cuts.

Japan

Fiscal Stimulus: PM Takaichi unveiled a massive ¥21.3tn stimulus, including rice coupons and subsidies.

AI Investment: New tax cuts were introduced to support AI in 17 industrial sectors.

Rates & Bonds: Superlong JGB yields rose; markets now price in a 75% chance of a BOJ hike in Dec. BOJ board members issued mixed signals, with Koeda signaling urgency and Noguchi staying neutral.

Australia

Growth: Q3 GDP grew only 0.2% QoQ, continuing a per capita recession.

Inflation & Rates: 3-year yields rose 27 bps to 3.87%, as core services inflation persists. NAB’s chief economist hinted that the RBA may hike in early 2026.

Singapore

Growth Upgrade: MTI raised 2025 GDP forecast to “around 4.0%”, driven by electronics and semiconductors.

AI Policy: Launched "PathGen", a national AI genomic surveillance program on Dec 1.

Inflation: Remains benign; MAS is holding policy settings steady.

Switzerland

Inflation: Flat at 0.0% in November.

FDI Trends: Swiss firms are expanding overseas to avoid potential US tariffs, which could reduce domestic capex.

AI & Technology Themes

Global: Enthusiasm sustained for AI-capex and hardware:

Moore Threads (China) soared 425–502% on debut.

Hon Hai and Dell reported AI-related shortages.

US: Streaming consolidation: Netflix + Warner Bros. Discovery merger announced.

Japan: Targeted tax incentives for AI R&D.

Regulatory Trends: China introduced national AI ethics framework; Europe is debating tighter AI rules; US pursuing Nvidia export controls.

Key Numbers Snapshot

US ADP Jobs–32k (shock contraction)

China RRR Cut–0.5% (Dec 2)

UK Inflation3.6% (Oct)

Eurozone GDP+0.3% QoQ (Q3, final)

Canada Jobs+54k, Unemployment: 6.5%

Singapore GDP Upgraded to ~4.0%

Japan Stimulus¥21.3tn + AI tax incentives

Australia GDP+0.2% QoQ, services inflation up

Switzerland CPI0.0% in November