Global News Summary: 17-21 Nov 2025

Global markets swung between risk-off volatility and a relief rally as U.S. politics, Fed divisions, and AI valuation fears dominated sentiment. The U.S. cut tariffs on key groceries to ease inflation pressures, while Fed officials split sharply on whether to deliver a December rate cut. UK bond markets experienced heavy repricing after Chancellor Reeves abandoned an income-tax rise, while the Swiss franc surged to a decade high. Japan’s economy contracted sharply in Q3, the yen weakened under fiscal concerns, and Australia signaled persistent wage-driven inflation pressure. Across markets, AI spending remained enormous despite rising bubble warnings, and crypto entered a deep correction, with Bitcoin down more than 30% from October highs.

United States (USD)

Economy & Growth

   •   Trump cut tariffs on imported agricultural goods(oranges, tomatoes, bananas, cocoa, coffee, tea) to alleviate grocery inflation amid weak polling.

   •   Fed minutes (Oct meeting) revealed “strongly differing views” on whether to cut rates in December.

   •   Market pricing: Fed cut odds fluctuated between <50% and ~60%, depending on the day.

   •   U.S. officials explored allowing Nvidia’s H200chips into China — a key geopolitical/economic signal.

Labor Market

   •   ADP mid-October private payrolls showed labor-market loss of momentum (not numerical but noted by USD weakening).

   •   Fed’s Waller: labour market “near stall speed” and still weak — a case for easing.

Debt & FX

   •   USD strengthened through the period, peaking at highest since Nov 4.

   •   UST yields:

      •   10Y fell to ~4.06% by week’s end

      •   2Y at ~3.51%

Policy Narrative

   •   Fed governors increasingly divided:

      •   Hawks: inflation still too high for cuts.

      •   Doves (Waller, Williams): labour softness requires easing.

Recession Risk (U.S.)

   •   Rising due to:

      •   weakening data

      •   Fed disagreement

      •   shutdown-related data blackouts

United Kingdom (GBP)

Economy & Debt

   •   A shock decision by Chancellor Reeves to abandon a planned income-tax rise shook markets and triggered a surge in gilt yields.

   •   Market concern: Budget credibility + widening fiscal hole.

Labor Market

   •   UK unemployment: 5% (three months to September), higher than expected.

   •   Wage growth slowed — gilts rallied briefly as markets priced BOE rate cut next month.

Inflation

   •   UK CPI fell to 3.6% in October, supporting the case for easing.

FX

   •   GBP traded around $1.31, fluctuating with gilt volatility.

Euro Area (EUR)

Inflation & Risk

   •   ECB’s Schnabel: inflation risks “skewed to the upside” as governments ramp up military & infrastructure spending.

   •   ECB’s Sleijpen warned that stablecoin shockscould spill over into the real economy.

   •   Swiss franc (not eurozone, but relevant FX cross):

      •   CHF hit a 10-year high vs EUR, reflecting safe-haven demand.

Fiscal & Structural Issues

   •   German Council of Economic Experts warned Germany will recover “only slowly” after four years of stagnation.

   •   French parliament voted to suspend Macron’s pension reform, adding political instability.

Japan (JPY)

Economic Growth

   •   GDP contracted –1.8% in Q3

Drivers:

      •   U.S. tariffs → export weakness

      •   Housing investment decline

Monetary Policy

   •   BOJ members signalled a possible December rate hike, but others urged caution due to past deflation.

   •   Yen slid to ~155/USD, reflecting:

      •   concerns about PM Takaichi’s large stimulus plans

      •   rising fiscal stress

      •   potential BOJ hesitancy

Other Macro

   •   Geopolitical risk rose:

China escalated confrontation with Japan over Taiwan remarks.

Australia (AUD)

Labor Market

   •   October unemployment: 4.3% (better than 4.5% prior).

   •   Strong job additions reinforced tight labour conditions.

Wages & Inflation Pressure

   •   Quarterly wage growth: +3.4% YoY, suggesting slow disinflation.

Monetary Policy

   •   RBA minutes: policy still restrictive, but Board debated recent inflation spike and labour tightness.

   •   AUD weakened earlier due to Japan-China tensions, later stabilized.

China (CNY)

Economy & Consumption

   •   Retail slowdown expectations: retail sales forecast +2.8% YoY in October — near the slowest since post-Covid rebound.

   •   CPI in October rebounded +0.2% YoY from −0.3% in September.

Industry

   •   Industrial profits (Sept): +21.6% YoY, second straight month of strong gains.

Geopolitics

   •   China escalated warnings and hinted at countermeasures against Japan over Taiwan comments.

🌐 Economic Growth Themes (Cross-Country)

   •   Japan: negative growth (–1.8% Q3)

   •   UK: weak momentum, higher unemployment

   •   China: slowing consumption, but strong industrial profits

   •   U.S.: mixed signals — weak labour + Fed disagreement

Overall growth tone: downshift across major economies except selective pockets (Australia jobs, China industry).

Jobs (Cross-Country)

   •   U.S.: softening private payroll signals.

   •   UK: unemployment 5%.

   •   Australia: labour market tightness (4.3% jobless).

   •   Japan: labour-side commentary overshadowed by GDP contraction.

Debt Securities / Bonds

   •   U.S. Treasuries: slight rally after mid-week volatility (10Y ~4.06%).

   •   UK Gilts: surged in yields after Reeves’ policy reversal.

   •   Japan JGBs: sold off sharply due to:

      •   fear of oversized stimulus

      •   BOJ rate-hike speculation

   •   Switzerland: CHF strength implied strong safe-haven demand.

AI Sector

Massive activity across the week:

Key Corporate & Policy Updates

   •   Nvidia:

      •   Blew past expectations with faster-than-forecast AI chip sales.

      •   U.S. discussing limited China access (H200).

   •   Microsoft & Nvidia:

      •   Joint $15bn investment into Anthropic.

   •   Anthropic:

      •   Planning $50bn AI-infrastructure expansion.

   •   SoftBank:

      •   Sold entire Nvidia stake for $5.8bn.

   •   Meta:

      •   Building $1bn+ AI data center in Wisconsin.

   •   Microsoft:

      •   Tapping OpenAI’s custom semiconductor ecosystem.

AI Market Stress

   •   U.S. markets repeatedly sold off due to AI-valuation concerns.

   •   Nvidia volatility shaped entire equity sentiment on multiple days.

Inflation

   •   UK: 3.6%

   •   China: 0.2%

   •   Japan: BOJ members still concerned about inflation momentum

   •   U.S.: No new CPI due to shutdown; political efforts focused on grocery-price relief

Recession Risks

Highest risk zones this week:

1. Japan – GDP collapse and yen stress

2. UK – labour-market deterioration + fiscal uncertainty

3. U.S. – mixed employment signals + Fed division + data disruption

4. Eurozone – inflation risks + stagnation concerns

Australia remains the least recession-prone due to strong labour data.