Global News Summary: 28 March–3 April 2026
This week was dominated by the Iran-war energy shock and the way it fed directly into inflation fears, bond yields and recession talk. In the US, markets swung between relief and alarm as hopes of de-escalation briefly lifted stocks before fresh threats sent WTI above $111 and Brent above $109, while the labour picture stayed soft-but-not-collapsing with jobless claims at 202,000 and ADP private hiring at 62,000. In the UK, the macro mood worsened as business inflation expectations rose, consumer pessimism deepened, and gilt markets stayed under strain from the energy shock. In the Eurozone, the key surprise was inflation: the flash March HICP jumped to 2.5% from 1.9%, almost entirely because energy swung from deflation to +4.9% inflation. China was firmer than feared, with the official manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.4 in March, back into expansion. Japan remained a global rates transmission channel: the BoJ Tankan showed large manufacturers slightly more upbeat now but less confident about the next quarter, while the 10-year JGB market stayed anchored around yields just above 2.1%. Australia still looked inflation-sensitive, with job vacancies at 337,900, the highest since November 2024, reinforcing the idea that the RBA may stay hawkish. Singapore continued to look comparatively resilient, pairing low inflation and strong trade with a new S$250 million low-carbon technology programme, while Switzerland remained the clearest developed-market deflation-risk case even after inflation ticked up to 0.3% in March.
United States
Jobs / growth The labour market still looked soft rather than broken. Initial jobless claims fell to 202,000 for the week ended 28 March, while ADP reported 62,000 private-sector jobs added in March. That is consistent with an economy that is still creating jobs, but only slowly.
Debt securities / policy Markets kept pushing back the idea of near-term Fed easing. Stronger private hiring and still-low claims nudged yields higher at times, with the 10-year Treasury around 4.29%–4.34% in market coverage during the week.
Inflation / recession The main inflation shock came from energy, not a new CPI release. By 3 April, WTI had surged to $111.54 and Brent to $109.03, intensifying "warflation" concerns and worsening recession anxiety.
AI There was no single week-defining US AI macro release, but the market's treatment of growth stocks remained tied to discount rates, energy costs and capex scrutiny rather than simple AI enthusiasm. That kept the "higher bar for AI winners" theme intact.
United Kingdom
Inflation / pricing pressure The clearest new UK signal was from business pricing expectations. A Bank of England survey showed firms now expect to raise prices by 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.4%, while overall inflation expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.0% after the Iran shock.
Economic growth / households The household picture deteriorated further. Which?'s tracker showed confidence in the national economy falling by 13 points to -56, with around 14 million households reporting they were having to cut back or draw on savings.
Debt securities The gilt market stayed under pressure. Commentary during the week continued to frame the UK as especially exposed to imported energy inflation and high borrowing costs, after 10-year gilt yields hit 5% late in the prior week and remained elevated.
EU (Eurozone)
Inflation The major euro-area development was the flash March inflation estimate of 2.5%, up from 1.9% in February. The swing was driven by energy inflation at 4.9%, versus -3.1% the month before. Services eased to 3.2%, and the core-style ex-energy measures stayed much calmer than the headline.
Economic growth / recession The euro area did not get a major new GDP print this week, but the inflation jump changed the tone: the problem now looks less like recession panic and more like slower growth plus renewed energy inflation risk.
Debt securities / policy The ECB was not the direct story this week; instead, markets focused on whether the March inflation shock would make an April or June tightening more plausible.
China
Economic growth China's factory sector rebounded. The official NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March from 49.0 in February, moving back into expansion and marking the strongest reading in a year. Output and new orders improved, helped by earlier government support and export resilience.
Inflation / recession / trade sensitivity Even with the PMI rebound, the week's message was not "all clear." Coverage stressed that the Iran war could soon weigh on growth through higher energy costs and supply-chain risk, while China's property slump still leaves domestic demand structurally weak.
Japan
Economic growth / business sentiment The BoJ's March Tankan showed large manufacturers' conditions improving from 16 to 17, while large non-manufacturers held at 36. But the June outlook worsened to 14 for manufacturers and 29 for non-manufacturers, signalling caution about the next quarter.
Debt securities / policy Japan remained a global duration lever. The latest 10-year JGB auction in March cleared at yields around 2.12%, and market levels stayed a little above 2.1%, still unusually high by Japanese standards and important for global hedging costs.
Australia
Jobs Australia's labour market still looked tight. Job vacancies rose to 337,900 in February, the highest since November 2024, with 12 of 18 sectors reporting stronger demand and construction vacancies up 19.3% year on year.
Debt securities / policy That vacancies data reinforced the market view that, after the March hike to 4.1%, the RBA may need to stay restrictive and could even tighten again if inflation does not cool.
Inflation / recession The main macro tension is unchanged: Australia faces an external energy shock on top of still-sticky domestic inflation, increasing the risk of a policy mistake if growth slows too sharply later.
New Zealand
Economic growth There was no week-defining new GDP release, so the latest official backdrop still applies: Q4 2025 GDP rose 0.2% q/q, following 0.9% in Q3, confirming that the recovery is real but shallow.
Jobs The labour market remains softer than Australia's. The latest official unemployment rate is 5.4% in the December 2025 quarter, with 165,000 people unemployed.
Debt securities / policy The RBNZ's OCR remains 2.25% and, as of its February guidance, it still expects inflation to fall as excess capacity persists.
Singapore
Economic growth / trade Singapore's latest official data continued to show resilience: total merchandise exports were up 11.0% y/y in February, and broader external trade remained firm.
Inflation Inflation is still low by developed-market standards. February CPI-All Items was 1.2% y/y, with the monthly increase at 0.6%; the prior release had already shown core inflation running low.
ESG / industrial policy A new domestic policy theme emerged on 1 April, when MTI announced the S$250 million Singapore Pilots for Energy & Enterprise Decarbonisation (SPEED) programme to support low-carbon technology pilots and deployment.
Switzerland
Inflation Switzerland remains at the low-inflation extreme, though March showed a slight uptick: inflation rose to 0.3% from 0.1% in February.
Debt securities / policy The SNB's March assessment still frames Switzerland as a place where the bigger risk is not overheating, but too much franc strength and growth slowing somewhat in the short term. It left the policy rate at 0%, kept GDP growth for 2026 around 1%, and explicitly raised its willingness to intervene in FX markets because of the Middle East conflict.
What this implied for markets
Three things mattered most. First, the Iran war kept energy as the key macro transmission channel, lifting oil, inflation expectations and recession worries simultaneously. Second, the world looked more regionally divergent: China's PMI rebounded, Australia's labour market stayed tight, New Zealand remained softer, and Singapore kept showing trade resilience. Third, bond markets remained highly sensitive to Japan and imported inflation, not just domestic central-bank policy.