Global News Summary: 21-27 March 2026
The week was dominated by the Iran-war energy shock colliding with already-fragile growth, pushing markets to reprice inflation, rates, and recession risk at the same time. In the US, equities slid into a deeper correction as oil surged and Fed officials stressed caution, even after holding rates steady the prior week. In the UK, February inflation held at 3.0%, but the real story was the bond-market sell-off: 10-year gilt yields rose above 5% on 27 March, the highest since 2008, as investors worried that higher energy prices could force rates to stay higher for longer despite weak growth. In the Eurozone, the policy backdrop remained “slow growth, inflation still manageable,” but the ECB’s own March projections made clear that the Middle East shock has worsened the 2026 outlook. China had no major fresh top-tier macro release this week, leaving the focus on the still-uneven rebound seen in the January–February data. Japan remained a global rates transmission channel, even without a major new domestic print. Australia stayed in the “sticky inflation, restrictive policy” camp, while New Zealand looked notably softer, with Q4 2025 GDP up only 0.2% q/q. Singapore again stood out for relative resilience, with February CPI at 1.2% y/y and total merchandise exports up 11.0% y/y, while Switzerland remained the clearest developed-market deflation-risk case, with the SNB holding rates at 0% and inflation at just 0.1%.
United States
Debt securities / policy The Fed had just held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on 18 March, and during 21–27 March officials kept emphasising uncertainty around the Iran war, oil, and inflation expectations. The market stopped treating cuts as imminent and became more focused on whether the next move could be delayed much further.
Inflation / recession The week’s macro stress came less from a new CPI release than from the oil shock. By Friday, Brent settled at $105.32 and US crude at $99.64, with investors worrying that expensive energy could hit consumers just as growth is softening.
Growth / markets Wall Street ended its fifth straight losing week. On 27 March, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, the Dow dropped 793 points (1.7%), and the Nasdaq lost 2.1%; both the Dow and Nasdaq were more than 10% below recent peaks, putting them in correction territory. That is consistent with a market pricing slower growth, not yet a full recession call.
AI AI-linked megacaps remained central to index performance, but they were hit alongside other growth and consumer names as investors shifted from “AI enthusiasm” back to discount rates, oil, and macro risk.
United Kingdom
Inflation
CPI (Feb): 3.0% y/y
CPIH (Feb): 3.2% y/y
Core CPIH (Feb): 3.4% y/y
CPIH services inflation: 4.2%
Headline inflation stayed flat in February, but core pressure remained uncomfortable. Clothing lifted the monthly rate, while motor fuels provided the main offset.
Jobs / growth The broader UK backdrop remained soft. Recent labour data still showed unemployment at 5.2% and annual payrolled employment down, while consumer confidence remained weak. That left the economy looking vulnerable even before the full energy shock hits household bills.
Debt securities / policy The most important UK development this week was the bond sell-off. On 27 March, 10-year gilt yields rose to 5.081%, the highest since 2008, as markets priced a tougher inflation/rates outlook driven by the Iran war and higher oil prices. Petrol prices pushed above 150p per litre and mortgage rates moved higher, worsening the squeeze on households.
Eurozone
Economic growth The ECB’s March staff projections still frame the euro area as slow growth, not collapse:
2026 GDP growth forecast: 0.9%
2027: 1.3%
2028: 1.4%
The euro area grew 0.2% q/q in Q4 2025, and survey data to February had suggested continued modest expansion before the war shock intensified.
Inflation The ECB’s baseline now sees:
2026 HICP inflation: 2.6%
2027: 2.0%
2028: 2.1%
That reflects a meaningful upward revision from the calmer pre-war outlook, largely because of energy.
Debt securities / policy The deposit rate remains 2.0%, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. The ECB’s line is effectively that inflation may overshoot again in the near term, but medium-term expectations remain anchored if the energy shock proves temporary.
China
Economic growth / jobs / property There was no major fresh China top-tier release in 21–27 March that materially changed the story. The standing picture remained the same as in the January–February data: industrial activity and retail sales had surprised on the upside earlier in March, but property was still deeply weak and the labour market still soft. Property investment was down around 11% year-on-year and sales had also fallen sharply in the early-year data.
Inflation / credit / recession No new CPI, PPI or LPR decision dominated the week. The macro narrative remained uneven demand and targeted support, not broad reflation.
Japan
Debt securities / policy Japan remained a global duration pressure point even without a major domestic release. The market continued to watch JGBs because any rise in Japanese yields has spillovers into global hedging costs and sovereign bond pricing. The broader late-March environment still treated Japan as a source of rate volatility rather than a stabilising anchor.
Growth / inflation / jobs No major fresh GDP, CPI or labour release dominated this week’s Japan story in the sources reviewed. The focus stayed on the interaction between fiscal expectations, yields, and the global oil shock.
Australia
Inflation Australia remained in the “sticky inflation” camp:
CPI (Feb): 3.7% y/y
Underlying inflation: 3.3%
Housing inflation: 7.2% y/y
That was only a small improvement from January and not enough to materially soften the RBA story.
Debt securities / policy After the March hike to 4.10%, the inflation data kept alive the idea that rates may stay high for longer, especially with war-driven fuel costs set to push up March inflation.
Jobs / growth No new labour-market release dominated the 21–27 March window itself, but the broader macro message remained that Australia still has more inflation persistence than New Zealand and therefore less room to turn dovish.
New Zealand
Economic growth A clear new release arrived this week:
Q4 2025 GDP: +0.2% q/q
Previous quarter: +0.9% q/q
That confirms the economy is recovering, but only slowly. Household spending was soft, and the pace of expansion remains shallow.
Debt securities / policy The OCR remained 2.25%, and the policy stance still assumed inflation would gradually fall as spare capacity builds. Relative to Australia, New Zealand continues to look more growth-supportive in tone.
Inflation The latest official CPI reference remained:
CPI (Dec 2025 quarter): 3.1% y/y
That is above target, but the direction is still expected to be downward.
Singapore
Inflation A fresh official release arrived on 23 March:
MAS core inflation (Feb): 1.4% y/y, up from 1.0% in January
Headline CPI (Feb): 1.2% y/y, down from 1.4% in January
CPI-All Items m/m: +0.6%
Core prices m/m: +0.5%
So Singapore still has low inflation overall, though the core measure ticked up.
Economic growth / trade / AI The official indicators remained constructive:
Q4 2025 GDP: +6.9% y/y
Total merchandise exports (Feb): +11.0% y/y
Enterprise Singapore’s separate trade release also showed continued export support from electronics-linked demand.
That leaves Singapore still looking like one of the cleaner beneficiaries of the AI/electronics cycle.
Policy / strategy There was no major fresh MAS policy move this week, but the combination of still-benign headline inflation and strong trade left Singapore looking more resilient than most peers.
Switzerland
Inflation Switzerland remained the clearest deflation-risk case among major developed economies:
Inflation (Feb): 0.1% y/y
That is still near the floor, even after the oil shock began to push up short-term inflation forecasts.
Debt securities / policy The SNB held the policy rate at 0% on 19 March and now sees:
Average inflation 2026: 0.5%
2027: 0.5%
2028: 0.6%
GDP growth 2026: around 1%
It explicitly said the Middle East conflict has made the outlook “considerably more uncertain,” with stronger energy prices lifting short-term inflation but a stronger franc lowering medium-term pressure.
What this implied for markets
The Iran war remained the dominant macro variable, mainly through oil, inflation expectations, and bond yields. Brent was above $111 by Friday in some market coverage, and that was enough to deepen the equity correction and push up government borrowing costs.
The UK looked especially exposed: flat inflation relief in February was overwhelmed by a renewed energy shock and a gilt sell-off.
The euro area still looked more stable than the UK or US, but the ECB’s own forecasts show that the energy shock has materially worsened the 2026 inflation-growth mix.
Australia and New Zealand continued to diverge, with Australia stuck in sticky inflation and New Zealand posting only a shallow recovery.
Singapore remained one of the cleanest macro stories — still-low inflation, solid exports, and a direct link to the AI/electronics cycle.
Switzerland remained the clearest deflation-risk market, even as the SNB acknowledged the war has made the outlook more uncertain.