Global News Summary : 18 - 24 April 2026

This week was defined by the Iran-war energy shock feeding into inflation expectations while markets remained supported by strong AI-led equities. In the US, equities pushed to fresh highs as semiconductor stocks rallied sharply, even as oil prices rose through the week from the mid-90s to end near $105–106 Brent, keeping inflation risks in focus and the 10-year Treasury around 4.3%. In the UK, retail sales rose 0.7% month on month, largely driven by fuel demand, while consumer confidence fell to -25, among the weakest readings in the post-2023 period. In the Eurozone, manufacturing improved with PMI at 52.2, but German business sentiment dropped to 84.4, highlighting ongoing fragility under higher energy costs. China reported Q1 GDP growth of 5.0%, supported by industrial output (+6.1%) while consumption remained softer (+2.4% retail sales). Japan saw inflation edge higher, with core CPI around 1.8% and headline closer to 1.5%, keeping tightening expectations alive. Australia and New Zealand both faced renewed inflation risks from fuel costs, while Singapore remained resilient with CPI at 1.8% and exports up 15.3%. Switzerland stayed the clearest low-inflation outlier, with CPI at 0.3%, still close to deflation territory despite the global energy shock.

United States

Markets / AI
US equities ended the week strongly, with the S&P 500 up 0.8% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%, both reaching record highs. Semiconductor stocks led the rally, reinforcing confidence in continued AI-driven demand.

Debt securities / policy
The 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.3%, while shorter yields held near 3.8%. Markets continued to expect a cautious Federal Reserve, balancing easing hopes against inflation risks.

Inflation / growth
Oil prices moved higher through the week, ending near $105–106 Brent, reinforcing concerns that energy could slow the disinflation process even as broader inflation pressures remain contained.

Jobs / recession
No major labour-market release changed the outlook. The US economy continues to look slower but still expanding, rather than heading into recession.

United Kingdom

Economic growth / consumption
Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in March, driven primarily by fuel purchases. Fuel volumes increased sharply, while underlying retail activity remained weak.

Inflation / households
Inflation rose to 3.3% in March, largely due to higher fuel costs. Consumer confidence dropped to -25, among the weakest readings of the post-2023 period, reflecting continued pressure on household finances.

Jobs / recession
Payrolls declined by around 11,000 in March, reinforcing a soft labour-market trend and ongoing growth concerns.

Debt securities / policy
The UK remained exposed to global energy and bond-market movements. Higher imported fuel costs risk delaying any meaningful rate cuts despite weak domestic demand.

EU (Eurozone)

Economic growth
Eurozone manufacturing improved, with PMI rising to 52.2, indicating a return to expansion.

Business sentiment / recession risk
Germany remained weak, with business sentiment falling to 84.4, the lowest level since 2020. Growth expectations remained subdued, with the ECB projecting around 0.9% growth for 2026.

Inflation / policy
Energy remained the primary driver of inflation pressures. The ECB maintained a cautious stance, balancing rising costs with fragile growth.

ESG / energy security
Policy emphasis continued shifting toward energy security and supply resilience, reflecting the immediate impact of the Iran-related disruption.

China

Economic growth
China reported Q1 GDP growth of 5.0% y/y, supported by industrial production growth of 6.1%, while retail sales rose 2.4%, indicating uneven recovery.

Domestic demand / recession risk
Growth remained heavily industry-driven, with consumption still lagging, suggesting incomplete domestic recovery.

Inflation / policy
No major new inflation shift occurred during the week. The broader story remained one of balancing external demand strength with internal softness.

Japan

Inflation
Japan’s core CPI rose to about 1.8%, while headline inflation was closer to 1.5%, reflecting higher energy costs.

Debt securities / policy
Markets continued to price in a higher likelihood of further tightening, with policy still around 0.75% and Japan remaining a key driver of global bond dynamics.

FX / growth risks
A weaker yen and rising import costs continued to increase Japan’s sensitivity to global energy shocks.

Australia

Inflation / energy shock
Fuel-driven inflation risks intensified, with expectations that inflation could approach 4% if energy costs remain elevated.

Debt securities / policy
The RBA faced a difficult balancing act between slowing growth and rising inflation, with markets debating further tightening versus a prolonged pause.

Economic growth / energy security
Policy focus shifted toward energy security, including securing fuel supply and supporting critical sectors.

New Zealand

Inflation / policy
Annual CPI held at 3.1% in the March quarter, with risks tilted upward due to fuel costs.

Economic growth / recession
Growth remained soft, with increasing risk of a weak growth plus higher inflation environment.

Jobs
No major labour-market update altered the outlook during this week.

Singapore

Inflation
CPI rose to 1.8% y/y, with core inflation around 1.7%, remaining low relative to global peers despite rising energy costs.

Economic growth / trade
Exports remained strong, with NODX up 15.3% y/y, supported by electronics and AI-related demand. Growth remained solid in the 4–5% range.

AI / industrial policy
Singapore continued to benefit from the global AI cycle, supporting manufacturing and trade flows.

ESG / energy security
Policy maintained a pragmatic balance between decarbonisation and energy security, with targeted support rather than broad subsidies.

Switzerland

Inflation / deflation risk
Inflation remained extremely low at around 0.3% y/y, still the lowest among major economies and keeping deflation risk in focus.

Debt securities / policy
The Swiss National Bank maintained flexibility, with policy rates near 0% and readiness to act via currency measures if needed.

Currency dynamics
The Swiss franc continued to strengthen as a safe haven, tightening financial conditions despite low inflation.

What this implied for markets

Three things stood out. First, the Iran war remained the dominant macro driver, feeding through oil prices, inflation expectations and consumer sentiment. Second, AI-led equity strength continued to support markets, but leadership was narrow and increasingly selective. Third, the global economy looked more fragmented, with resilience in the US, China and Singapore, energy-driven weakness in the UK and Europe, inflation risk in Australia and New Zealand, and Switzerland remaining the clearest low-inflation outlier.