Global News Summary: 11-17 April 2026
This week was shaped by the Iran-war energy shock moving from price spikes into real-economy strain, even as some markets tried to look through it. In the US, the aftershock from the March CPI surge kept the focus on whether energy inflation will damage consumer spending and delay Fed easing, while markets drew support from hopes that oil disruption might eventually ease. In the UK, the headline surprise was that the economy had shown 0.5% month-on-month growth in February before the Iran shock, but that good news was quickly overshadowed by sharply weaker external forecasts and rising fears that the energy crisis will hit growth and inflation later in the year. In the Eurozone, the concern shifted from inflation prints to operational risk, with warnings that aviation fuel shortages could emerge within weeks if Gulf supply routes stay impaired. China showed a better inflation mix, with March CPI up 1.0% y/y and PPI up 0.5% y/y, ending a long producer-price deflation stretch, though that still looked more like imported cost pressure than a broad domestic reflation. Japan remained a global rates hinge, with the Bank of Japan still targeting an overnight rate around 0.75%, while markets became more cautious after Governor Ueda poured cold water on immediate tightening expectations. Australia shifted further into fuel-security mode after the Geelong refinery fire worsened an already tight diesel market, forcing Canberra to stress there would be no rationing while imports were arranged. Singapore stood out for resilience, with advance Q1 2026 GDP growth of 4.6% y/y and March total merchandise exports up 41.2% y/y, while also deepening practical fuel-security cooperation with Australia. Switzerland remained the clearest developed-market low-inflation outlier, with March CPI at 0.3%, low enough to keep deflation risk alive even after the oil shock.
United States
Inflation / policy
The week remained dominated by the previous inflation shock. March CPI had risen 0.9% month on month and 3.3% year on year, with energy driving the increase. That left the US in a “slowing growth, renewed inflation risk” setup rather than a clean disinflation story.
Debt securities / growth / recession
There was no single new blockbuster payroll or GDP release inside 11–17 April, but the macro conversation increasingly centred on how long households and firms can absorb higher fuel costs before growth slows more materially. This reinforced a broader warflation-versus-growth debate.
AI
AI remained supportive for parts of the equity market, but the dominant macro driver this week was still oil, inflation and interest rates. Investors stayed selective, rewarding stronger balance sheets and clearer monetisation.
United Kingdom
Economic growth
The big domestic surprise was that the UK economy grew 0.5% month on month in February, with services, manufacturing and construction contributing. Over the three months to February, GDP growth improved to 0.5%, up from 0.3% previously, showing stronger momentum before the Iran shock.
Jobs / households
The labour backdrop remained soft, with unemployment at 5.2% and continued caution in hiring. That weak labour momentum offsets the earlier GDP strength.
Debt securities / inflation / recession
External risks dominated. Growth expectations were revised lower, with forecasts for 2026 cut to around 0.8%, while higher energy prices were expected to push inflation back up. The UK looked one of the more exposed developed economies to the shock.
EU (Eurozone)
Economic growth / recession
There was no major GDP release this week, but the energy shock translated into operational risk. Warnings emerged that jet-fuel shortages could develop within weeks if supply disruption continues, raising risks for transport and logistics.
Inflation / policy
The recent inflation rebound remained a concern, with markets focusing on whether supply disruptions would feed into the next round of price increases. The challenge shifted toward energy resilience rather than pure inflation control.
ESG / energy security
Policy focus moved toward resilience: supply diversification, fuel security and maintaining critical infrastructure, rather than purely long-term ESG narratives.
China
Inflation
March CPI: +1.0% y/y
March PPI: +0.5% y/y
Core CPI: around +1.1% y/y
China exited a long period of producer-price deflation, marking an improvement in industrial pricing conditions.
Economic growth / recession
The improvement still appears driven by imported cost pressures and partial industrial recovery rather than a full domestic demand rebound.
Debt securities / policy
No major policy move dominated the week. The main takeaway is that China is importing global inflation pressures while still managing a structurally soft economy.
Japan
Debt securities / policy
Japan remained a key global rates driver, with policy still centred around 0.75%. Global markets continued to watch Japanese yields due to their impact on hedging costs and capital flows.
Economic growth / policy expectations
Communication was the key development. Governor Ueda signalled no urgency to tighten policy further, pushing back on earlier expectations of near-term rate hikes.
Australia
Inflation / energy security
Australia moved deeper into fuel-security mode. The Iran shock combined with the Geelong refinery fire, which reduced petrol output by around 40%, intensified supply concerns.
Debt securities / policy
Markets increasingly focused on imported fuel inflation rather than domestic wage pressures. Policy risk now includes both inflation persistence and supply disruption.
Economic growth / logistics
Concerns extended into logistics and freight reliability, with warnings that fuel quality and availability could begin affecting transport and supply chains.
New Zealand
Debt securities / policy
The Reserve Bank maintained the OCR at 2.25%, with the Middle East conflict expected to raise inflation while weighing on near-term growth.
Inflation / growth
No major new data release this week. The economy remains softer than Australia’s, with inflation elevated but domestic demand relatively weak.
Singapore
Economic growth / trade
Advance Q1 2026 GDP: +4.6% y/y
March total merchandise exports: +41.2% y/y
Singapore showed strong resilience, supported by trade, electronics demand and regional positioning.
Inflation
February CPI: +1.2% y/y
Inflation remains low compared to global peers.
AI / industrial policy / energy security
Singapore maintained a balanced approach: continuing to invest in AI and productivity while strengthening energy resilience and providing targeted support.
Regional relevance
Singapore became central to regional fuel coordination, reflecting its role in refining and energy flows across Asia.
Switzerland
Inflation
March CPI: +0.3% y/y
Core inflation: around 0.4%
Inflation remains extremely low, keeping deflation risk in focus.
Debt securities / policy
The macro environment remains defined by a strong currency and low inflation. Policy flexibility remains high, with attention on preventing excessive tightening via currency strength.
What this implied for markets
Three themes stood out. First, the Iran war remained the dominant macro transmission channel, feeding through oil prices, inflation expectations and consumer sentiment. Second, the global economy appeared increasingly fragmented, with varying regional responses to the shock. Third, policy thinking continued to shift toward resilience, supply security and strategic coordination, especially in Europe, Australia and Singapore.