Global News Summary 20-24 Oct 2025
Markets entered late October on strong footing, driven by disinflation in the U.S., dovish global central bank signals, and rising hopes of a soft landing.
Despite geopolitical noise, the tone was risk-on: equities rallied to fresh record highs, yield curves steepened further, and volatility stayed subdued. The Federal Reserve’s pivot to easing dominated global sentiment, while the UK and Europe focused on fiscal adjustments and China reported slowing but still solid GDP growth.
United States
Economic Growth & Inflation
Core CPI (Sept): +0.2% m/m, +3.0% y/y — slowest since June, confirming inflation moderation.
Fed Outlook: Markets priced two consecutive 25bps cuts (Oct & Dec) and up to 120bps total easing in the next 12 months, bringing the Fed Funds Rate to ~2.9%.
Quantitative Tightening: Expected to pause by end-October amid balance-sheet strain.
GDP & Jobs: Labor market softening remained in focus, but overall growth expectations were intact.
Markets
S&P 500: +0.8% to record 6,800
NASDAQ 100: +1.0%
Russell 2000: +1.2% (catch-up rally)
UST 10Y: Steady at 4.00%, 2Y 3.48% — yield curve remains upward sloping, signaling cyclical optimism rather than recession.
USD Index: Flat, reflecting balanced global flows.
Gold: Eased to $4,098/oz, after reaching record levels earlier in the month.
United Kingdom
Fiscal & Inflation Policy
Chancellor Rachel Reeves pledged to “smooth the path” for BOE rate cuts through targeted fiscal relief.
Key proposal: scrapping VAT on household electricity bills and other measures to ease living costs.
Markets welcomed her emphasis on transparency and accountability, projecting a potential boost to consumer confidence into Q4.
Market Implications
Sterling held steady around $1.33,
Gilts rallied modestly, with 10Y yield at 4.43%, as investors priced a slightly faster easing path.
UK inflation remains sticky but expected to decelerate gradually in 2026 under the combined fiscal–monetary framework.
Eurozone
Policy & Growth
ECB board members, led by Isabel Schnabel, reiterated their aim to strengthen the euro’s international role, amid concerns about dependency on the USD in commodity trade and energy pricing.
The EU pressed China for a “prompt resolution” of export restrictions on critical materials that have disrupted green manufacturing supply chains.
German and French political fragility persisted, but not enough to derail ECB’s steady policy stance.
Markets
EUR/USD: 1.1633 (+0.1%)
Bund 10Y: 2.63%
European equities followed Wall Street higher, with autos and semiconductors rebounding from tariff fears.
Japan
Leadership & Economic Outlook
Sanae Takaichi was elected Japan’s first female prime minister, sparking optimism for structural reform and fiscal expansion.
Tokyo equities hit record highs, while the yen weakened slightly to 152.8 as markets bet on continued pro-growth policy.
Exports: +4.2% YoY in Sept, led by chips and electronic parts, offsetting declines in shipments to the U.S. due to tariff drag.
The new government is drafting a stimulus package to cushion inflation’s impact, though size and funding remain unspecified.
China
Economic Growth
Q3 GDP: +4.8% YoY (Q2 +5.2%) — showing resilience but signaling a gradual slowdown.
Exports: Continued strength, +8.3% YoY in September.
Property and manufacturing weakness persist, but industrial policy and AI investment are driving pockets of stability.
Markets
Hang Seng Tech Index: +41% YTD, as AI self-sufficiency themes boosted sentiment.
Authorities are tightening export controls on chips and rare earths, intensifying strategic tensions with the West.
AI & Technology Sector
OpenAI and Anthropic continued to dominate capital flows:
OpenAI in multi-hundred-billion chip deals with Broadcom and AMD to secure 10GW compute capacity.
Anthropic in talks with Google for computing infrastructure worth “tens of billions.”
Nvidia and TSMC remained central beneficiaries of global AI expansion.
AI remains a macro driver of capex and equity valuation, particularly in the U.S. and Asia.
Global Markets Recap
Asset Level Weekly Change Comment
S&P 500 6,800 +0.8% Record high
MSCI World +0.7% Asia led
Gold $4,097 –0.7% Risk-on rotation
WTI Crude $61.45 –0.6% Supply stability
Bitcoin $110,654 +1% Rebound post-volatility
USD/JPY 152.8 –0.2% Yen under pressure
UST 10Y 4.00% 0 bps Stable curve
Takeaway of the Week
The week reinforced a global soft-landing narrative — the Fed’s pivot is aligning with easing fiscal measures in the UK and Japan, even as China navigates slower but positive growth.
AI investment and resilient consumer spending continue to anchor optimism, while steepening yield curves suggest a normalization phase, not a pre-recession signal.
Markets head into late October with momentum intact, volatility low, and policy tailwinds strong, but the risks remain fiscal fragility and geopolitical flare-ups ahead of November’s key summits.