Global News Summary: 11 - 16 Aug 2025
Markets at a Crossroads
Equities: From Surge to Stumble
Markets lost some shine. The S&P 500 dipped –0.3%, Nasdaq –0.5%, Russell 2000 –0.6%, while the Dow was flat. The standout pain? Semiconductors. The SOX slid –2.3%, dragged down by Applied Materials’ bleak guidance — a sign that China’s demand slowdown is finally showing up in corporate earnings. Healthcare and solar, by contrast, caught flows, proving rotation is alive.
Consumers: Spending Resilient, Confidence Fragile
Retail sales in July grew 0.5%, with the GDP-linked control group beating expectations. Americans are still buying, but August sentiment data slipped — the first decline since April. This divergence matters: people are spending, but they don’t feel good about it. That gap is usually where the cracks begin to spread.
Inflation & Policy: Steady but Sticky
Inflation hasn’t spiked — but it hasn’t eased enough either. Markets are still betting on a 25bp cut in September, but higher Treasury yields (+3 bps on the 10Y to 4.32%, +5 bps on the 30Y to 4.92%) show bond traders aren’t buying the “soft landing” story yet. Europe felt the same tremors, with Bunds +8 bps and Gilts +6 bps.
Geopolitics: Diplomacy Meets Uncertainty
The Trump–Putin summit in Alaska hung over markets. The mere hint of an end to the Ukraine war was enough to keep traders cautious. Headlines here could swing sentiment far more than macro prints.
Debt & Yields: The Quiet Alarm
Global bonds sold off, and that’s a tell. When consumer spending holds up but bond yields rise, it’s usually not because of confidence — it’s because investors are pricing persistent inflation and slower growth ahead. This is the market’s way of whispering: “the Fed may cut, but conditions aren’t loosening.”
Recession Risk: Semiconductor Signal
Applied Materials’ guidance cut was more than a company miss. It’s a warning shot: tariffs, trade friction, and slowing demand in China are bleeding into corporate America. Tech has been the backbone of growth, so cracks here could ripple wider than sentiment surveys suggest.
Bottom Line
August’s second week turned the mood from euphoria to caution. Strong U.S. spending kept the growth story alive, but semiconductor weakness, higher yields, and fading sentiment hint at fragility. The “post-tariff surge” narrative will be tested in the weeks ahead. Watch the bond market closely — it’s already flashing yellow.
Asset/Indicator Change / Level
S&P 500 – 0.3%
Nasdaq 100 – 0.5%
Russell 2000 – 0.6%
Dow Jones Industrial Average Flat trend
Semiconductor Index (SOX) – 2.3%
Retail Sales (July, MoM) + 0.5%
Consumer Sentiment (Aug) First drop since April
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield + 3 bps → 4.32%
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield + 5 bps → 4.92%
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield + 2 bps → ~3.75%
German 10-Year Bund Yield + 6 bps → ~2.69%
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield + 6 bps → ~4.60%
Yen (JPY/USD) + 0.4% → ~147.2
Crypto – Bitcoin – 0.8%
Crypto – Ether – 3.4%
Oil (WTI) – 1.3% → ~$63.12/barrel
Gold + 0.1% → ~$3,339/oz
Equities: Modest declines reflect recalibration after earlier gains.
SOX: Sharp drop highlights growing concern over tech demand and China exposure.
Retail Sales vs. Sentiment: Spending holds up, but confidence wavers—early warning sign.
Bond Yields: Across-the-board selloff signals "growth with caution"—not a clean-cut soft landing trade.
Global Bonds & Currencies: Yields rising in Europe too; yen strengthening slightly amid safe-haven flows.
Commodities & Crypto: Flight to quality in gold; softening demand in oil, and continued crypto volatility.