Global News Summary 10-14 Nov 2025

The week was dominated by optimism over a deal to end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, a shift in central-bank expectations, and mounting tensions around global AI regulation and capex intensity.

Macro data was mixed: U.S. private payrolls weakened, U.K. joblessness rose, Australia posted a strong employment surprise, and China showed only a marginal inflation pickup.

Bond markets were volatile — particularly U.K. gilts — as shifting fiscal expectations and central-bank commentary drove repricing. AI remained the largest thematic driver, with huge corporate spending (Google, Nvidia, Meta, Anthropic) and deepening questions around valuations.

Overall recession risk stayed moderate: soft U.S. labor data and constrained global demand offset improvements in Asia.

1. Country Developments

United States

• Democrats backed a negotiated deal to end the record U.S. government shutdown, lifting global risk sentiment.

• Private-sector payrolls declined (ADP data), pushing the dollar lower mid-week.

• Fed uncertainty intensified: probability of a December rate cut fell below 50% by week’s end.

• Tech-led rebounds were fragile; AI valuation anxiety remained a major overhang.

• U.S. stocks oscillated: early rally faded; S&P 500 ended 14 Nov flat, Dow –0.7%.

United Kingdom

• Government proposed capping tax benefits for salary-sacrifice schemes, triggering warnings from pensions groups.

• Unemployment rose to 5%, fastest in years; wage growth slowed.

• Markets priced in a BoE rate cut next month.

• Gilts sold off sharply later in the week: 10Y gilt yield jumped to 4.57%.

Eurozone

• ECB’s Schnabel warned inflation risks remain skewed upward as fiscal spending rises.

• Germany’s Council of Economic Experts cut growth expectations and criticized Chancellor Merz’s investment program as insufficiently structured.

• France’s parliament voted to suspend Macron’s pension reform, complicating fiscal planning.

Japan

• Minutes signaled the next BoJ rate hike could come as early as December, matching market expectations.

• Some policymakers urged caution after decades of deflation.

• Japanese equities rose early in the week on improved risk appetite tied to the U.S. shutdown deal.

Australia

• RBA said the economy shows limited spare capacity, complicating policy.

• Unemployment fell to 4.3% in Oct (vs 4.5% prior), beating estimates.

• Aussie dollar moved higher; rate-cut expectations pushed back.

China

• CPI rose 0.2% YoY in Oct after –0.3% in Sep. Economists view the rebound as temporary.

• Retail demand remains soft; October retail sales expected at 2.8% YoY, marking the slowest post-Covid consumption trend in four years.

2. Economic Growth

• U.S. growth outlook clouded by:

• shutdown-related data gaps,

• soft private payroll signals,

• uncertainty over December rate cuts.

• Eurozone growth expected to remain subdued; German experts say recovery from years of stagnation will be “slow.”

• U.K. growth weakening as labor conditions soften and fiscal tightening looms.

• Australia signals continued above-capacity growth with strong labor demand.

• China continues to decelerate, with consumption the weakest since 2021.

3. Debt, Fiscal & Government

• U.S.: Shutdown nearing resolution lifted bonds earlier in the week, but by 14 Nov yields rose (10Y → 4.15%).

• U.K.: Gilts saw heavy selling:

• 10Y gilt surged to 4.57% (+14 bps) on fiscal concern and weakening jobs data.

• Eurozone: Germany approved €1.9B of new defense procurement.

• Global: Market pricing shows rising sensitivity to debt-funded capex (e.g., Oracle CDS spike).

4. Artificial Intelligence

Massive AI-related announcements dominated the week:

Corporate investments

• Google: $40B Texas data-center expansion; offered remedies to settle €3B EU antitrust case.

• Meta: >$1B for new Wisconsin data center.

• Anthropic: Plans $50B AI-infrastructure buildout.

• Microsoft: Leveraging OpenAI’s custom chip work to accelerate its in-house silicon.

• AMD: Forecasting accelerating multiyear revenue growth from data-center AI demand.

• Nvidia:

• CEO Huang said no active plans for Blackwell chip sales to China.

• Warned China could win the AI race due to lower energy costs & lighter regulation.

Regulation & Tension

• OpenAI asked the U.S. government to revise Chips Act tax credits to support AI infrastructure.

• Amazon issued a cease-and-desist to Perplexity AI over automated shopping violations.

Market tone

• AI valuations came under renewed scrutiny:

• Several strategists warned of froth.

• Megacap tech saw extreme intraday volatility.

• Nvidia’s next earnings (following week) seen as the make-or-break moment for the AI trade.

5. ESG / Climate / Energy

• No major climate-policy developments this week.

• Energy markets saw mixed price action:

• WTI crude recovered to $59.90, aided by supply expectations.

• ESG-linked corporate activity:

• Siemens Energy raised medium-term targets on higher demand for renewable-linked turbine infrastructure.

• BlackRock and ACS to invest €2B in green and digital infrastructure data centers.

6. Inflation

• U.S.: Inflation outlook clouded by shutdown; December Fed cut odds fell below 50%.

• Eurozone: ECB warns inflation risks skewed upward due to large-scale fiscal spending.

• U.K.: Falling wage inflation supports near-term disinflation.

• China: CPI +0.2% YoY — modest but not indicative of durable reflation.

7. Recession Risks

Rising Risks

• United States

• Weakening payrolls

• Uncertain Fed path

• Instability during government shutdown

→ Mild recession probability slightly increased.

• United Kingdom

• Rising unemployment + slowing wages

→ Clear signs of cyclical downturn risk.

Stable / Lower Risks

• Australia

• Strong jobs data reduces recession odds.

• Japan

• Wage momentum supports consumption; recession risk contained.

• China

• Persistent consumption weakness raises medium-term stagnation concerns more than sudden recession fears.