Global News Summary : 1 - 6 September 2025
The first week of September 2025 saw global markets pivot from inflation worries to labor market fragility. U.S. payrolls collapsed to just +22k in August, unemployment rose to 4.3%, and June was revised to show the first job losses since 2020. This fueled bets for 2–3 Fed cuts starting in September, sending Treasury yields lower and gold to record highs above $3,526/oz. Equities softened, led by U.S. tech and semiconductors, while Europe grappled with political risks and rising bond yields. The UK’s mortgage approvals hit a six-month high, but long-term borrowing costs surged to 1998 levels. Japan saw multi-decade highs in bond yields, while China’s yuan strengthened and capital outflows hit records despite optimism in equities. AI continued to dominate headlines with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Apple all announcing large-scale moves. Recession risks are rising as labor cracks deepen, even as consumer spending and corporate flows remain resilient.
United States
Economic Growth & Inflation
Core PCE inflation (July) rose 2.9% YoY, highest in five months.
Consumer spending in July accelerated — largest gain in four months.
Gold hit $3,526/oz and silver also scaled record highs on expectations of Fed easing.
Trump said India offered to cut tariffs after U.S. imposed 50% levies over Russian oil purchases.
Jobs
August nonfarm payrolls: +22k (vs. >150k expected).
June revised to a decline — first job loss since 2020.
Unemployment rose to 4.3%, signaling labor market deterioration.
Job openings (July): 7.18m (vs. 7.38m expected).
Debt Securities
2Y yield fell to 3.52% (lowest since 2022).
10Y yield eased to 4.09%; 30Y at 4.77%.
Market now pricing 2–3 rate cuts in 2025; Barclays sees 3 cuts, JPMorgan calls September a “lock.”
Equities
S&P 500: –0.3%; Nasdaq: flat; Dow: –0.5%; Russell 2000: +0.5%.
Tech weak — Nvidia slipped; Broadcom surged on OpenAI partnership.
Tesla proposed a $1 trillion Musk pay package; Apple booked $9B India sales ahead of Sept. 9 iPhone launch.
United Kingdom
Mortgage approvals rose to 65.4k in July, six-month high.
House prices dipped 0.1% MoM in August to £271,079 ($367k).
Services PMI improved to 54.2 (Aug) from 51.8 in July.
Long-term borrowing costs hit 5.64%, highest since 1998.
Grocery inflation: 4.2% YoY, 18-month high.
Euro Area
Eurozone inflation: 2.1% in Aug, slightly above ECB’s 2% target.
ECB officials suggest rates will stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
French businesses warn political turmoil risks economic stability; borrowing costs rose to 3.52%.
Spanish PM pledged to complete term despite budget risks.
EU adopted regulations to remove tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, paving way for U.S. to lower auto tariffs from 27.5% → 15%.
Japan
Yen weakened to 147.54/$ early week, but rebounded to 147.45 after jobs report.
Bond yields hit multi-decade highs: 20Y at 2.69%, 30Y at 3.28% — highest since issuance.
BOJ deputy governor reiterated bond-buying reduction is appropriate but gave no timeline for next hike.
Ministry of Finance requested ¥32.4 trillion ($219B) for debt financing needs in FY2026.
China
RMB strengthened to its strongest since Nov. 2024.
Capital outflows hit a record $58.3B in July, largely due to buying of Hong Kong assets.
New tariffs imposed: 33.3%–78.2% on U.S. optical fiber imports.
Domestic tourism boom could add $42B to economy in 2025.
Hedge fund managers predict a “meteoric rally” in Chinese equities.
Australia
Q2 GDP grew 0.6% QoQ (vs. 0.5% forecast), doubling prior quarter’s pace.
Household spending rose 0.5% in July, reinforcing expectations RBA holds rates steady.
RBA minutes suggest more rate cuts likely over the coming year.
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
OpenAI: Planning a large data center in India under “Stargate” branding; also exploring infrastructure-as-a-service business model.
Anthropic: Reached $170B valuation after mega fundraising.
Apple: Planning AI-powered web search tool to compete with Google/OpenAI.
Broadcom: Surged on new AI accelerator deal with OpenAI.
Google: Investing $9B in Virginia data centers.
Nvidia: Strong growth, but asked suppliers to halt H20 chip production under Chinese pressure.
ESG
No major ESG-specific policies reported, though energy, housing affordability, and consumer staples inflation remain dominant ESG themes.
Corporate notes: UK pharmacies shielded consumers from Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro price hikes.
Inflation Trends
U.S.: Core PCE 2.9% YoY; CPI due Sept. 11 expected 2.6–2.8%.
UK: Inflation pressures from food (4.2%) and housing.
Eurozone: Inflation 2.1%, keeping ECB cautious.
Japan: Tokyo CPI 2.5% YoY, easing from July’s 2.9%.
Canada: CPI 1.7% in July.
Recession Risks
U.S.: Labor weakness (payrolls +22k, unemployment 4.3%) raises concerns of slowdown.
UK: Unemployment expected to climb to 5% in coming months.
Japan: Exports fell 2.6% YoY in July, steepest drop in four years.
China: Property slump deepening; new-home sales down 24% YoY in July.