Global News Sumary 7 - 13 March 2026
This week tilted more clearly toward growth anxiety, even as inflation and bond-market pressure did not disappear. Markets were also unsettled by the escalation of the Iran conflict in the Gulf, which pushed oil prices sharply higher and raised concerns about global energy supply and inflation risk. In the United States, the labour market looked weaker but not broken: job openings rose to 6.95 million in January, yet claims and hiring commentary still pointed to a sluggish “low-hire, low-fire” environment, while Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.7% annualised. In the United Kingdom, the tone worsened as January GDP was flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with weak services activity and recruitment indicators reinforcing the sense that the economy was already soft before the latest energy shock. In the Eurozone, inflation stayed relatively contained at 1.9% in February, though rising oil prices linked to the Middle East tensions created new uncertainty. China delivered mixed inflation data, with CPI rising 1.3% year-on-year in February while producer-price deflation continued, signalling uneven domestic demand. Japan remained the global rates pressure point, with 10-year JGB yields in the low-2% range, still historically elevated for Japan. Singapore continued to stand out for resilience, with 2026 growth expected at 2–4% following a 5.0% expansion in 2025, while Switzerland remained the clearest deflation-risk economy among developed markets.
United States
Economic growth
Q4 2025 GDP growth revised: 0.7% annualised
The revision reinforced the view that the US economy entered 2026 on a weaker footing than previously thought.
Jobs
January job openings: 6.95 million
Initial jobless claims: about 213,000
The labour market picture was mixed. Vacancies improved modestly, but overall hiring conditions remained cautious, suggesting a cooling rather than collapsing labour market.
Debt securities / policy
Bond markets remained caught between slower growth and lingering inflation risks. The Federal Reserve continues to favour patience, with markets expecting rate cuts only if labour-market weakness becomes more pronounced.
AI
AI remained an important structural theme in equity markets and productivity discussions. However, during this week macro concerns around growth, labour demand and interest rates dominated market narratives.
Inflation / recession
No major CPI release arrived during the week, but higher oil prices revived concerns that energy inflation could slow the broader disinflation trend.
United Kingdom
Economic growth
January GDP: 0.0% month-on-month
Three-month growth to January: 0.2%
Sector data showed stagnation in services and declines in production activity.
The economy appeared fragile even before accounting for the impact of higher global energy prices.
Jobs
The labour market remained weak rather than collapsing. Recruitment surveys described hiring demand as subdued, while official unemployment previously stood around 5.2%.
Debt securities / policy
Weak growth combined with rising energy prices complicated the Bank of England outlook. Markets increasingly discussed the possibility of a stagflation-type environment.
Inflation / recession
Oil prices rising toward $100 per barrel raised concern that inflation could re-accelerate even while growth remains weak.
Eurozone
Inflation
February inflation: 1.9%
Inflation remained slightly below the European Central Bank’s target.
Economic growth
No major GDP shock occurred during the week. The region continued to display slow but positive growth, avoiding immediate recession concerns.
Debt securities / policy
European bond markets remained relatively stable but continued to watch two global risks closely: rising energy prices and higher Japanese bond yields.
China
Inflation
February CPI: +1.3% year-on-year
Consumer prices strengthened modestly but did not indicate overheating.
Producer prices / growth backdrop
Producer-price deflation continued, highlighting persistent weakness in industrial demand.
Economic growth / recession
China’s recovery remained incomplete. Consumer demand showed some improvement, but manufacturing and property sectors continued to face structural pressures.
Japan
Debt securities
10-year government bond yield: low-2% range
This level remains historically high for Japan and continues to influence global bond markets through capital flows and currency-hedging dynamics.
Economic growth / policy
No major GDP release defined the week. Attention remained focused on fiscal policy expectations and the potential implications for bond issuance and inflation.
Jobs / wages
Wage negotiations remained closely watched. Strong wage growth could reinforce the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening bias.
Australia
Inflation
January CPI: 3.8% year-on-year
Housing inflation: 6.8% year-on-year
Trimmed-mean inflation: 3.4%
Housing costs remained the dominant driver of inflation.
Debt securities / policy
The Reserve Bank of Australia remains in a restrictive policy stance as inflation remains above target.
New Zealand
Debt securities / policy
Official Cash Rate: 2.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained policy settings while expecting inflation to gradually fall as spare capacity builds in the economy.
Economic growth / inflation outlook
Inflation remains slightly above target but is expected to ease as domestic demand stays subdued.
Compared with Australia, New Zealand’s monetary stance appears more accommodative.
Singapore
Economic growth
2025 GDP growth: 5.0%
2026 growth forecast: 2–4%
Singapore continues to benefit from strong global demand for electronics and semiconductor exports.
Inflation
Headline CPI: 1.4% year-on-year
Core CPI: 1.0% year-on-year
Inflation remains among the lowest in developed economies.
Trade / AI cycle
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX): +9.3% year-on-year
Electronics exports, particularly integrated circuits and AI-related components, continue to drive Singapore’s trade performance.
Singapore therefore remains an important indicator of the global AI hardware investment cycle.
Switzerland
Inflation
Inflation: about 0.1% year-on-year
Switzerland remains the lowest-inflation developed economy.
Debt securities / policy
With inflation near zero, the Swiss National Bank retains wide policy flexibility. However, strong demand for the Swiss franc continues to tighten financial conditions and raises the risk of deflation.
What this implied for markets
Several themes dominated global markets during the week:
Growth concerns are rising in the US and UK, even as energy prices keep inflation risks alive.
Japan remains a key global bond-market driver, with yields above 2% influencing global duration markets.
China’s recovery remains uneven, with consumer prices stabilising but industrial demand still weak.
Singapore continues to benefit from the global AI electronics cycle, combining strong trade with low inflation.
Switzerland remains the clearest deflation-risk case among developed economies.