Fragile by Design: Preparing for an Economy That Won’t Go Back to Normal

We are often told that the economy has "reset" after a crisis. Yet, with each recovery, the system feels heavier, more constrained, and less forgiving.

Over the coming months, I will be publishing a short trilogy of books exploring this disconnect. The central argument is simple but uncomfortable: modern economies do not become fragile because of accidents. They become fragile because of how we stabilize them.

These books grow out of the ideas discussed in this blog, moving from daily observations to the deeper structures that drive them.

The trilogy will appear as three standalone volumes:

• Almost Successful: Macroeconomics at a Threshold

Investigates why stability is not the same as safety. It looks at how "successful" recoveries often mask the quiet accumulation of debt and rigid commitments, setting the stage for the next, harder break.

• Fragile by Design: Why Modern Economies Remember, Break, and Refuse to Reset

Explores the concept of economic memory. It explains why systems never truly "bounce back" to their pre-crisis state, and why every bailout and intervention permanently alters the terrain for the future.

• Before the Choice: Microeconomics in a World That Remembers

Shifts the focus to the decision-maker. It asks how we make choices when optimization is impossible, time is running out, and the luxury of a "reset" no longer exists.

Taken together, this trilogy offers a foundational framework for navigating the new realities of the 2020s—from trade wars and rising defense spending to the AI arms race. It is a guide for understanding a world where economics and geopolitics have fused, and where history refuses to be washed away.